INTRO
As we get deeper into the off season we’re going to be seeing some unrealistic expectations by fans by the player their team picks – especially guys picked mid-late lottery. So I looked at how many lottery picks become all-stars, starters, role players, and busts. I specifically looked at the 2001-2011 draft. I chose 2011 as those players just got off the rookie scale this year and for the most part are fully developed. I used Win Shares/Year. Obviously win shares isn’t a perfect stat, especially while looking at role players. It overvalues starters on good teams (Danny Green) and undervalues fringe all-stars on bad teams (Victor Oladipo).
ALL STAR APPEARANCES BY DRAFT YEAR/PICK
Between 2001 and 2011 exactly 1 All-Star (Klay Thompson) was drafted from picks 11-14. 1 All-Star out of 44 picks. There’s a couple other guys that I would say were near-all stars (Richard Jefferson) or have the potential to be an All-Star in the right situation (Markieff Morris), but for the most part if you’re drafting in that range you’re hoping you can get a contributing role player (i.e. Kris Humpries, Mickael Pietrus).
Out of the 55 guys picked 6-10 from 2001-2011, 13 became All-Stars (23%) which is seemingly a much higher rate. However, only 3 of those 13 players had 4+ all-star appearances (Joe Johnson, Amare Stoudemire). These numbers are somewhat skewed as you can expect some of the 2008-2010 guys to make more All-Star games. So if you extrapolate that Steph (2009) and Paul George (2010) will make 4+ all-star games, you’re looking at 4 out of 55 guys (7%) becoming tier-1 or tier-2 stars on a championship team. Whether or not you think DeMar DeRozan (2009) and Brook Lopez (2008) can tier-1/2 stars will shift that number a little. The all-stars other than these 4 are 1-time all-stars guys like Caron Butler or Andre Iguodala.
I’ve included a table below that shows the amount of all-star appearances organized by draft order. I do apologize if it’s difficult to interpret – I figured this would be the best way to show the data given my lack of data visualization skills.
As we get deeper into the off season we’re going to be seeing some unrealistic expectations by fans by the player their team picks – especially guys picked mid-late lottery. So I looked at how many lottery picks become all-stars, starters, role players, and busts. I specifically looked at the 2001-2011 draft. I chose 2011 as those players just got off the rookie scale this year and for the most part are fully developed. I used Win Shares/Year. Obviously win shares isn’t a perfect stat, especially while looking at role players. It overvalues starters on good teams (Danny Green) and undervalues fringe all-stars on bad teams (Victor Oladipo).
ALL STAR APPEARANCES BY DRAFT YEAR/PICK
Between 2001 and 2011 exactly 1 All-Star (Klay Thompson) was drafted from picks 11-14. 1 All-Star out of 44 picks. There’s a couple other guys that I would say were near-all stars (Richard Jefferson) or have the potential to be an All-Star in the right situation (Markieff Morris), but for the most part if you’re drafting in that range you’re hoping you can get a contributing role player (i.e. Kris Humpries, Mickael Pietrus).
Out of the 55 guys picked 6-10 from 2001-2011, 13 became All-Stars (23%) which is seemingly a much higher rate. However, only 3 of those 13 players had 4+ all-star appearances (Joe Johnson, Amare Stoudemire). These numbers are somewhat skewed as you can expect some of the 2008-2010 guys to make more All-Star games. So if you extrapolate that Steph (2009) and Paul George (2010) will make 4+ all-star games, you’re looking at 4 out of 55 guys (7%) becoming tier-1 or tier-2 stars on a championship team. Whether or not you think DeMar DeRozan (2009) and Brook Lopez (2008) can tier-1/2 stars will shift that number a little. The all-stars other than these 4 are 1-time all-stars guys like Caron Butler or Andre Iguodala.
I’ve included a table below that shows the amount of all-star appearances organized by draft order. I do apologize if it’s difficult to interpret – I figured this would be the best way to show the data given my lack of data visualization skills.
Draft/Pick | 2001 | 2002 | 2003 | 2004 | 2005 | 2006 | 2007 | 2008 | 2009 | 2010 | 2011 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Pick 1 | 8 | 11 | 8 | 3 | 5 | 2 | 3 | ||||
Pick 2 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 6 | |||||||
Pick 3 | 5 | 8 | 8 | 3 | 3 | ||||||
Pick 4 | 10 | 4 | |||||||||
Pick 5 | 11 | 1 | 3 | 1 | |||||||
Pick 6 | 1 | 3 | |||||||||
Pick 7 | 2 | 2 | |||||||||
Pick 8 | |||||||||||
Pick 9 | 6 | 1 | 2 | 1 | |||||||
Pick 10 | 7 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 2 | ||||||
Pick 11 | 1 | ||||||||||
Pick 12 | |||||||||||
Pick 13 | |||||||||||
Pick 14 |
Basically, the conclusion I took from this is that if you’re drafting 10-14 don’t expect the guy you draft to become an All-Star. If you’re drafting 6-10, one of those teams is going to likely pick a fringe All-Star kind of player.
WIN SHARES/YEAR BY DRAFT YEAR/PICK
Obviously judging a draft based on just All-Star appearances isn’t the best way. A lot of guys make All-Star teams because they’re fortunate to be on a good team (Mo Williams), while others were just never in the right spot (Mike Bibby). So I looked at Win Shares/year of where everyone was drafted. I split up the averages from 2001-2008 and 2001-2011 as the players from 2009-2011 generally haven’t hit the tail end of their career so their WS/Year numbers are inflated.
WIN SHARES/YEAR BY DRAFT YEAR/PICK
Obviously judging a draft based on just All-Star appearances isn’t the best way. A lot of guys make All-Star teams because they’re fortunate to be on a good team (Mo Williams), while others were just never in the right spot (Mike Bibby). So I looked at Win Shares/year of where everyone was drafted. I split up the averages from 2001-2008 and 2001-2011 as the players from 2009-2011 generally haven’t hit the tail end of their career so their WS/Year numbers are inflated.
Draft/Pick | 2001 | 2002 | 2003 | 2004 | 2005 | 2006 | 2007 | 2008 | 2009 | 2010 | 2011 | Average 2001-2008 | Average 2001-2011 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1 | 1.73 | 8.24 | 14.49 | 9.64 | 4.38 | 2.08 | 2.43 | 5.17 | 10.18 | 5.18 | 6.60 | 6.02 | 6.37 |
2 | 6.35 | 0.80 | 0.71 | 4.92 | 4.11 | 7.71 | 11.68 | 1.46 | 0.96 | 2.14 | 2.38 | 4.72 | 3.93 |
3 | 8.82 | 4.32 | 7.15 | 3.05 | 7.13 | -0.47 | 6.84 | 3.13 | 10.50 | 4.74 | 3.18 | 5.00 | 5.31 |
4 | 1.97 | 3.38 | 8.28 | 1.73 | 13.13 | 1.63 | 5.94 | 7.57 | 3.62 | 1.12 | 4.73 | 5.45 | 4.83 |
5 | 4.55 | -0.40 | 8.98 | 4.05 | 3.26 | 1.65 | 4.13 | 7.96 | 2.85 | 4.72 | 6.30 | 4.27 | 4.37 |
6 | 5.82 | 0.00 | 1.92 | 3.21 | 2.47 | 6.23 | 0.62 | 4.63 | -0.37 | 1.14 | 1.33 | 3.11 | 2.46 |
7 | 2.18 | 4.81 | 4.31 | 5.81 | 2.24 | 2.54 | 2.10 | 2.90 | 8.95 | 6.44 | 2.30 | 3.36 | 4.05 |
8 | 1.07 | 2.45 | 2.11 | -0.13 | 3.41 | 4.63 | 3.23 | 0.25 | 2.08 | 2.30 | 2.40 | 2.13 | 2.16 |
9 | 0.45 | 6.93 | 1.95 | 6.80 | 1.08 | 0.13 | 7.04 | 3.87 | 4.25 | 4.76 | 3.68 | 3.53 | 3.72 |
10 | 5.39 | 3.90 | 1.46 | 0.05 | 4.68 | 0.10 | 2.38 | 5.51 | 4.43 | 5.64 | 0.60 | 2.93 | 3.10 |
11 | 0.75 | 1.19 | 1.97 | 3.07 | 0.00 | 3.88 | 0.40 | 2.19 | -0.05 | 0.96 | 5.38 | 1.68 | 1.79 |
12 | 2.21 | 0.44 | 3.82 | 0.43 | -0.05 | 0.65 | 4.83 | 3.16 | 2.37 | 0.16 | 1.85 | 1.93 | 1.80 |
13 | 5.58 | 0.13 | 0.83 | 0.50 | 0.65 | 2.98 | 0.98 | 1.26 | 3.20 | 4.42 | 3.55 | 1.61 | 2.19 |
14 | 4.19 | 2.36 | 2.99 | 2.34 | 0.90 | 3.80 | 1.53 | 0.97 | 0.48 | 3.60 | 2.45 | 2.38 | 2.33 |
Subdividing the picks into 4 ranges, you can see what you can expect in each pick range. Note the huge standard deviation for those picking 11-14.
Draft Pick | Average WS/Year | Std. Deviation |
---|---|---|
Picks 1-3 | 5.24 | 0.56 |
Picks 4-6 | 4.28 | 0.30 |
Picks 7-10 | 2.99 | 0.49 |
Picks 11-14 | 1.90 | 0.96 |
At a win share average of 1.9 you’re getting players like regular season Wesley Johnson, McCollum, Dellavedova. So basically guys that are your 9th or 10th man off the bench. McCollum and Dellavedova obviously raised their stock in the playoffs, but in the regular season they were the guys that got inconsistent bench minutes.
At a win share average of 2.99 you’re getting into the good bench guys (Corey Brewer, Carl Landry) or below average starters (Thaddeus Young).
At a win share average of 4.28 you’re getting into the above-average starters, could be an all-star in the right situation kind of players. Players like Markieff Morris, Kemba Walker, Tyreke Evans.
I don’t want to make any conclusions about the win share averages of the guys that were picked as those numbers are skewed by the large amount of players that were superstars (LBJ, Kevin Durant) or huge busts (Darko, Thabeet).
CONCLUSION
Anyways, in conclusion, it’s important to temper your expectations for whoever you draft – especially if you’re drafting outside the top 5. Even within the top 5; saying Okafor’s floor is Al Jefferson is severally overrating Okarfor. Al Jefferson has a WS/Year of 5.84 and is a one time All-NBA Third team. Out of the 33 top 3 picks from 2001-2011, 16 of them made an All-NBA Third team or better and only 9 of them have posted a higher WS/Year than Big Al. Outside the top 5 for teams drafting guys like Mudiay and Hezonja need to understand that more than likely these players are going to be the 6th or 7th man on your bench at their peak. Outside the top 10, you’re going to be lucky if the guy you draft is a contributing 8th or 9th man off your bench.
I was personally surprised to see how many of these guys just become role players. I’ve definitely been guilty of projecting the 7th or 8th guys off the board as potential all-stars. After looking at all the numbers it definitely makes me think that there is value in teams that have a strong core like Utah, Indiana or Miami in trading their pick. In the 10-12 range they’re drafting, they would be lucky to find a contributing bench player. Here are some of the player for pick trades that have happened close to that range recently:
Obviously the big thing I’m discounting here is the contract situation. 1st round picks are a huge steal – if you can get a 7th or 8th man off your bench for the rookie scale contract of a mid-late lottery pick it’s a huge steal.
Anyways, I hope you found the information as interesting as I did, and would love to hear your thoughts, especially those concerning the advantages of trading mid-late lottery picks
At a win share average of 2.99 you’re getting into the good bench guys (Corey Brewer, Carl Landry) or below average starters (Thaddeus Young).
At a win share average of 4.28 you’re getting into the above-average starters, could be an all-star in the right situation kind of players. Players like Markieff Morris, Kemba Walker, Tyreke Evans.
I don’t want to make any conclusions about the win share averages of the guys that were picked as those numbers are skewed by the large amount of players that were superstars (LBJ, Kevin Durant) or huge busts (Darko, Thabeet).
CONCLUSION
Anyways, in conclusion, it’s important to temper your expectations for whoever you draft – especially if you’re drafting outside the top 5. Even within the top 5; saying Okafor’s floor is Al Jefferson is severally overrating Okarfor. Al Jefferson has a WS/Year of 5.84 and is a one time All-NBA Third team. Out of the 33 top 3 picks from 2001-2011, 16 of them made an All-NBA Third team or better and only 9 of them have posted a higher WS/Year than Big Al. Outside the top 5 for teams drafting guys like Mudiay and Hezonja need to understand that more than likely these players are going to be the 6th or 7th man on your bench at their peak. Outside the top 10, you’re going to be lucky if the guy you draft is a contributing 8th or 9th man off your bench.
I was personally surprised to see how many of these guys just become role players. I’ve definitely been guilty of projecting the 7th or 8th guys off the board as potential all-stars. After looking at all the numbers it definitely makes me think that there is value in teams that have a strong core like Utah, Indiana or Miami in trading their pick. In the 10-12 range they’re drafting, they would be lucky to find a contributing bench player. Here are some of the player for pick trades that have happened close to that range recently:
- Martell Webster for the 2010 16th pick
- George Hill for the 2015 15th pick
- Jason Richardson for the 2007 8th pick
- Shane Battier for the 2006 8th pick
Obviously the big thing I’m discounting here is the contract situation. 1st round picks are a huge steal – if you can get a 7th or 8th man off your bench for the rookie scale contract of a mid-late lottery pick it’s a huge steal.
Anyways, I hope you found the information as interesting as I did, and would love to hear your thoughts, especially those concerning the advantages of trading mid-late lottery picks