In r/nba game thread a while ago there was an argument about how good a shooter Harrison Barnes was. He was a 40% 3 pointer shooter in the regular season, but in the first 4 games of the finals he was shooting 33%. One side of the argument is that the Barnes was just having an off 4 games and that he’d eventually return to form. The other side was that Barnes 3P% was inflated since he was getting some of the most open corner 3s in the regular season, but wasn’t getting the same opportunities due to Klay & Steph’s struggles in the finals.
3 POINT SHOT DATA FOR THE 2014-2015 SEASON
3 POINT SHOT DATA FOR THE 2014-2015 SEASON
3P% | % 3PAs | Ave. Def Distance | Median Def Distance | |
Total | 35.02% | 100.00% | 6.029822 | 5.3 |
Above the Break | 34.09% | 73.18% | ||
Right Corner | 39.22% | 12.67% | ||
Left Corner | 38.01% | 13.38% | ||
0-1 Dribbles | 35.94% | 83.75% | ||
<4 ft of Space | 30.41% | 21.09% | ||
4+ ft of Space | 36.24% | 80.30% |
So roughly a quarter of the threes taken were corner 3s and about 80% of all 3s were uncontested (defined as 4+ ft of space). Essentially what I’m looking for are players that had a significantly different percentage of corner, uncontested or spot up 3s than the league average in an effort to identify which free agents are underrated/overrated as shooters.
Looking at the Barnes example from before, it certainly suggests that he’s a worse shooter than his regular season percentage leads you to believe. More than half his 3PAs were corner 3s, and all but 8 of his 3PAs can be defined as uncontested.
HARRISON BARNES 3 POINT SHOT DATA FOR THE 2014-2015 SEASON
Looking at the Barnes example from before, it certainly suggests that he’s a worse shooter than his regular season percentage leads you to believe. More than half his 3PAs were corner 3s, and all but 8 of his 3PAs can be defined as uncontested.
HARRISON BARNES 3 POINT SHOT DATA FOR THE 2014-2015 SEASON
3P% | % 3PAs | Ave. Def Distance | Median Def Distance | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Total | 40.47% | 100.00% | 8.487906977 | 7.6 |
Above the Break | 33.33% | 46.05% | ||
Right Corner | 58.49% | 24.65% | ||
Left Corner | 37.10% | 28.84% | ||
0-1 Dribbles | 40.48% | 97.67% | ||
<4 ft | 37.50% | 3.72% | ||
4+ ft | 40.67% | 97.21% |
So I looked at some of the free agent wings that had 200+ 3PAs to identify which ones had the potential to become better shooters in a better offensive system. Obviously some guys like Wes Matthews and DeMarre Carroll are more than just shooters. Wilson Chandler isn’t a free agent, but he’s been in trade rumors lately and seems like he’s a prime candidate to get moved.
3 POINT SHOOTING OF 2015 FREE AGENT WINGS
3 POINT SHOOTING OF 2015 FREE AGENT WINGS
% of 3PA | % of 3PA | % of 3PA | % of 3PA | % of 3PA | ||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
3P% | Above the Break | Right Corner | Left Corner | <4 ft of Space | 4+ ft of Space | Ave Defender Distance | Median Defender Distance | |
NBA Average | 35.02% | 73.18% | 12.67% | 13.38% | 21.09% | 80.30% | 6.03 | 5.3 |
Arron Afflalo | 35.44% | 60.96% | 17.72% | 21.32% | 39.64% | 63.06% | 5.07 | 4.5 |
Gerald Green | 35.53% | 71.05% | 15.00% | 13.16% | 35.53% | 66.58% | 5.11 | 4.6 |
Alan Anderson | 34.76% | 60.48% | 14.76% | 22.38% | 35.71% | 66.67% | 5.88 | 5.4 |
JR Smith | 38.26% | 79.58% | 9.15% | 10.56% | 30.52% | 71.83% | 5.21 | 4.7 |
Wilson Chandler | 34.24% | 74.88% | 12.81% | 12.07% | 29.80% | 73.65% | 5.39 | 4.7 |
Wesley Johnson | 34.65% | 61.42% | 15.75% | 18.50% | 26.38% | 77.56% | 6 | 5.1 |
Marco Belinelli | 37.89% | 75.77% | 11.89% | 11.89% | 19.82% | 83.26% | 6.29 | 5.5 |
Iman Shumpert | 34.18% | 59.18% | 20.92% | 19.39% | 19.39% | 83.67% | 6.04 | 5.2 |
DeMarre Carroll | 39.60% | 55.45% | 17.49% | 28.05% | 14.85% | 85.48% | 6.29 | 5.4 |
Wesley Matthews | 38.65% | 70.56% | 12.13% | 17.30% | 15.51% | 86.07% | 5.88 | 5.4 |
Gerald Green and Arron Afflalo particularly stand out as having shot a lot of contested 3s, and if they were put in systems where they got more open 3s I’d expect them to hit a higher clip than the 35% each of them hit this season.
On the flip side Iman Shumpert and to a lesser degree Wesley Matthews/DeMarre Carroll are a players that got better looks as compared to the NBA average. 40% of Shump’s 3s were corner 3’s and he shot a slightly above average of uncontested 3s. Matthews got an above average amount of corner 3s and uncontested 3s. Given Matthews high volume of 3PAs I would expect him to have a below average amount of uncontested looks as teams game plan for him. For reference, only 68% of Klay’s 3s were uncontested. Carroll got an exceptionally high number of corner 3s which might not be sustainable on a different system. Carroll shot a ridiculous 49% on corner 3s but only a slightly above average 36% on 3s above the break.
Some other interesting notes:
Obviously this isn’t a perfect analysis. Just putting some of these guys in a different system won’t magically increase their percentage - the ability to create uncontested looks is a skill in itself as Korver illustrated this season. Anyways, I hope this provided some cool information, and if you want me to pull any other information on other FAs or players let me know. I got everything off NBA Savant (a very cool website, would recommend).
On the flip side Iman Shumpert and to a lesser degree Wesley Matthews/DeMarre Carroll are a players that got better looks as compared to the NBA average. 40% of Shump’s 3s were corner 3’s and he shot a slightly above average of uncontested 3s. Matthews got an above average amount of corner 3s and uncontested 3s. Given Matthews high volume of 3PAs I would expect him to have a below average amount of uncontested looks as teams game plan for him. For reference, only 68% of Klay’s 3s were uncontested. Carroll got an exceptionally high number of corner 3s which might not be sustainable on a different system. Carroll shot a ridiculous 49% on corner 3s but only a slightly above average 36% on 3s above the break.
Some other interesting notes:
- JR Smith, despite what he thinks does not shoot a higher percentage on contested 3s (33% on contested 3s versus 40% on uncontested)
- Alan Anderson shoots a higher percentage on contested 3s than uncontested (36% versus 33.5%)
- I didn’t include him as he’s not a free agent, but Robert Covington shot a higher amount of contested and non-corner 3s than NBA average on a high volume of 3PA. He’s someone to look out for as the next best 3 & D guy
Obviously this isn’t a perfect analysis. Just putting some of these guys in a different system won’t magically increase their percentage - the ability to create uncontested looks is a skill in itself as Korver illustrated this season. Anyways, I hope this provided some cool information, and if you want me to pull any other information on other FAs or players let me know. I got everything off NBA Savant (a very cool website, would recommend).